Cycle more than you drive

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When I bought my bicycle last year, I had a couple of goals for the new year. The amount of driving I was doing had gone down dramatically since moving to Tokyo, so it didn’t seem too ambitious to aim for cycling more kilometres than I drive by car.

I also wanted to cycle a weekly total of at least 100 km, a nice round figure. If I achieved that minimum and assuming I would sometimes do more than the minimum, a goal of 6,000 km for the whole year didn’t seem too ambitious. That would be a monthly average of 500 km. As it turned out, my monthly total was only significantly below 500 km in three months of the whole year.

After getting into longer rides (100 km or more) in February, I ended up doing at least one long ride every month except August, including 16 rides over 100 km and 11 of those over 160 km. The longest ride was a 300 km brevet. I am not fast, but I like to start early and to keep going.

While the year is not quite over yet, my total cycling since January comes to 7250 km (excluding any rides under 5 km which I don’t log), while our car this year has clocked up about 4,000 km being driven by my wife and me. About 1/4 of that driving distance was actually due to bicycle races that my son Shintaro competed in.

While cycling more than driving is not a realistic option for everyone, once you get used to it, the bicycle is a viable alternative more often than you might at first think.

Google Picasa web prices

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Yesterday I was going to upload a set of pictures to Google’s Picasa Web from my bicycle trip the day before, only to get a surprise.



Picasa 3 popped up this message and asked if I wanted to upgrade to more space:

You are currently using 21849 MB (100%) of your 1024 MB

Was I suddenly unable to add new pictures? Why just now? It all turned out to be rather benign, see below.

Almost two years ago I had purchased 80 GB of storage space for $20/year, but then found that even after I uploaded gigabytes of images and videos, it was still only showing as using a fraction of a GB. I then found a post that explained that only images bigger than 1600×1200 pixels (2 MPx) and videos longer than 10 minutes counted towards the purchased limit. That resolution is fine for online viewing: The biggest monitors in practical use are 1920×1200, which is only 2.4 Mpx. Uploading at 3 Mpx or more would have no practical benefit and any prints I’d do I’d do from the full size resolution files on the hard disk anyway.

So in March of this year I downgraded to the free plan, which has a 1 GB limit. Throughout the year I kept uploading pictures no larger than web resolution and videos shorter than 10 minutes. So I was really surprised when I got this message. First I was shocked a bit, because when I checked prizes for subscriptions, I found that while the pre-April 2012 plans like the one I let expire had charged $.25 per GB per year ($5 for 20 GB, $20 for 80 GB), the new plans were 2.4 to 4.8 times more expensive (see Google’s own comparison of the plans). Google now charges monthly and the 25 GB plan works out as $29.88 over 12 months, about $1.20 per GB. That means the new 25 GB plan is about 50% more than the old 80 GB plan I had before. Yikes! 100 GB costs $59.88 per year, or $0.60 per GB per year. The 200 GB, 400 GB and 1 TB plans are proportional in price to the 100 GB plan. While existing users of the old plan can keep renewing their plan, free users can only sign up for the more expensive new plans.

However, all turned out to be a storm in a tea cup, because nothing had really changed: When I finally clicked “OK” to continue, it uploaded my photographs as before and I could view them. All that had changed was that they tell you that you’re over the limit, but the limit only applies to images bigger than 2024×2048 pixels or videos longer than 15 minutes. If you’re above the 1 GB limit as a free user, you only lose the ability to uploaded images bigger than 2024×2048 pixels (they will automatically be scaled down) or videos longer than 15 minutes, which I don’t really need.

I guess they decided to switch to heavier sales tactics to better monetize their service, as after all Google is a commercial company serving their share holders and not just their customers.

“Work from home mum” scams (newsonlineweekly.com)

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Almost two years ago I wrote about “Work from Home Mum” scams. Right now I see this type of scam mostly advertised via paid website ads. A year ago it was mostly advertised via spam sent from hacked Yahoo email accounts, which of course is totally criminal.

The advertised websites still look very similar. A recent example is newsonlineweekly.com. When I opened it, the headline read “EXPOSED: Shizuoka-shi Mum Makes $7,397/Month From Home And You Won’t Believe How She Does It!” The internet provider I was accessing from was in Shizuoka, Japan. When I opened the same site from a webhoster based in Nuremberg, Germany, it came back as “EXPOSED: Nuremberg Mum Makes $7,397/Month From Home And You Won’t Believe How She Does It!” Their server looks up what city your IP address is associated with and puts that into the headline.

If you click on the link to sign up, it takes you to a site called “onlineincomesolution.com” where you’re asked for your name, email address and phone number. The small print mentions that you’re placing an order for “Acai Lipo” for £99.97 and another £99.97 for “Quick Detox” (the price was probably shown in UK Sterling because my browser is set for English (UK)).

They are still using deceptive advertising to trick housewives and mothers into sending them money hoping to be able to support their families. They are targeting people for their scam who are out of work and short of money. How sick is that?

The earth4energy scam

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In recent months I have come across many ads for a website called earth4energy.com. If you haven’t seen the ads, it makes implausible claims of anyone being able to become energy independent for a only small investment. Make no mistake, it’s a scam, designed to sell worthless “e-books”. See this site for a thorough debunking of their claims.

The fact is, the electricity usage of average households can not be met easily or on the cheap from renewable sources using some DIY design. Any photovoltaic panels or wind turbines that are powerful enough to make a significant contribution will cost you a lot of money, typically at least several years worth of your normal electricity bill. These people would have you believe that for a few hundred dollars you could become independent of the utility companies. They do so because their business is selling e-books and videos to people. The exaggerated claims are how they get people to send them money. They are using an elaborate affiliate scheme and paid online ads to fish wide and far for people who might fall for their promises.

What I find particularly interesting about earth4energy.com is how similar it looks to the earlier “Run your car on water” scam I reported about a little over 4 years ago that made similarly outrageous claims. Then they promised cutting your fuel bill by wiring a “hydrogen generator” to your car alternator. Of course it didn’t work.

Both scams made money by selling worthless e-books. Both used affiliate schemes. On either set of sites when you try to navigate away from it, a dialog box will pop up to ask you if you really want to leave, trying to keep you there. If both schemes were not run by the same person, I’d guess they either used the same web designer or one guy closely copied the other. Typical for the hype used to sell on both sites is a “limited time offer” on earth4energy.com. When I checked it, it said the special offer expired on November 22 at midnight, which is today:

To secure your purchase and get the bonus products for free please order now. (This offer expires Thursday November 22 at midnight)

When I checked the source code of the earth4energy.com website, I found this piece of Javascript code that always outputs the current date:

To secure your purchase and get the bonus products for free please <a href=”ordercd.php”>order now</a>. (This offer expires
<script type=”text/javascript”>
var d=new Date()
var weekday=new Array(“Sunday”,”Monday”,”Tuesday”,”Wednesday”,
“Thursday”,”Friday”,”Saturday”)
var monthname=new Array(“January”,”February”,”March”,”April”,”May”,
“June”,”July”,”August”,”September”,”October”,”November”,”December”)
document.write(weekday[d.getDay()] + ” “)
document.write(monthname[d.getMonth()] + ” “)
document.write(d.getDate() + ” “)
</script>
at midnight)</p>

It will tell you the offer expires on today’s weekday and today’s exact date at midnight. It will do so today, tomorrow or a year from now. The offer is not meant to ever expire, the fake deadline is only claimed to rush you into buying. That is just one example of deception on their site.

The identity of the registrant of domain “earth4energy.com” is hidden behind a WHOIS proxy, so we don’t know who it is. What’s interesting though is that the site was registered in June of 2008, around when I wrote about the earlier scam. Back then there was a site called water4gas.com (notice the similar naming scheme!) run by a guy calling himself “Ozzie Freedom”, whose original name was Eyal Siman-Tov. He is from Israel and appeared to be a member of the Scientology cult. In 2008 he got sued by the state of Texas for deceptive business practises. You can read about the court case here.

I find it interesting how many web pages out there promote both water4gas by Ozzie Freedom and earth4energy.com. Here are a few of them. Is that by coincidence or are they connected?

Nichitsu ghost town ride

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I try to cycle at least 100 km per week, with at least one all day ride (12 hours and more) a month. My latest such trip took me to Nichitsu ghost town, a former mining town set up by Nitchitsu Co Ltd in 1937 and abandoned in the late 1970s. Since May several members of Tokyo Cycling Club (TCC) had been passing through that place. The pictures of it that I found on the web looked very interesting, though I did not fancy looking for the infamous brain in a jar.

A week ago another TCC group went on an autumn leaves viewing tour in the area, but I couldn’t make it. So I decided to go the following weekend, together with my friend Jose, with whom I had done several long rides last winter and spring (including the BRM519 300 km brevet in May).

It turned out to be one of the most beautiful rides of the year, but it was also one of the more challenging ones, because of how mountainous the route was and because of how cold it was already. According to Jose’s Garmin 500 GPS, total climbing on the route was only 7 percent less than at the 300 km brevet around Mt Fuji we rode in May!

Jose and I both wanted an early start and we agreed to meet at 05:30 at the Tamagawa bridge near Yanoguchi station. I got up at 04:00, planning to leave at 05:00, but ran 10 minutes late because I decided to get changed again to be better prepared for the cold and later was glad I did! I changed from my cycling shorts with extra set of tights on top into corduroy pants and long johns. Later on, when descending from a tunnel that is the highest point of the route (elevation: approximately 1250 m), I also wore up to three shirt layers (two short sleeve and one long sleeve sports shirt) plus a wind breaker, a scarf and ski gloves.

While climbing I stripped down to a short sleeve t-shirt when it was 9° C. At the higher altitudes it was around 3° C and I wore another layer.

The day before the ride I got myself a Carradice Pendle saddle bag for the Brooks saddle on my Bike Friday to carry clothes, bread and the obligatory bananas (hey, you can’t go on a lengthy bike ride without bananas!). The bag was the perfect size for this kind of trip.

After meeting up at the Tamagawa river we cycled along the east bank up to Oume. After a 20 minute stop at the station convenience store we headed off into the mountains, climbing Yamabushi pass and descending into Chichibu via a route recommended by my friend Pete.

5 1/2 hours after leaving home we arrived at Chichibu where we had a nice 50 minute bakery lunch and coffee at a mall, then set off for the big autumn leaf viewing loop. We encountered plenty of nature, including one deer with big antlers, but fortunately no bears:

The back roads were great, some of them almost totally deserted of cars. At other spots there were many parked cars and people walking around with tripods and fine SLRs to capture the splendid seasonal views.

It took us four hours from Chichibu via route 140 and route 210 to Nichitsu and the tunnel above. These are some workers’ dormitories:

This used to be the public bath house:

This is the tunnel at the top of the valley:

The trees became more colourful the higher we climbed. At the top most of them had already shed their leaves. The climbs were maybe as steep as 10 % and did I already mention that it was cold?

Though we never stopped for very long, we stopped many times for pictures, as these were a main goal of the ride. Thank you for your patience, Jose!

After already riding for an hour in the dark we got back to Chichibu around 18:00. We had just enough time to pack the bikes and get some food before hopping on an express train back over the mountains. We had covered 177 km with over 2400 m of climbing in beautiful countryside. What a great day!

The collagen scam

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If you watch Japanese TV, you will come across variety shows or commercials almost daily that praise some food as being “rich in collagen” (“コラーゲンたっぷり”). The target of these ads are invariably women, who are lead to believe that since collagen serves an important function in skin cells, that somehow these foods will make you look younger or more beautiful, even if the claim is not explicitly stated most of the time. Beyond Japan there are many consumers who use skin creams that contain collagen, with similar expectations.

The simple fact is, the body is not able to directly reuse any collagen supplied either as food or applied topically as a cream. If you buy this stuff, you’re wasting your money. If you’re selling this stuff, you’re misleading people.

Collagen is a type of protein that is manufactured inside cells from amino acids, the simple building blocks that all proteins are made from. A healthy, balanced diet that provides sufficient protein from whatever source is all it takes to enable collagen production. It’s no easier for the body to make collagen from amino acids from collagen-rich food than from the same amino acids from say, yoghurt, beans or chicken. The easiest way to help your skin is get enough hydration and not to smoke. Vitamin C is important too for collagen production, so eat enough vegetables and fruit.

In the case of creams, the body is not able to use the collagen at all because it’s not being digested into amino acids for rebuilding and it’s too bulky to pass cell membranes directly.

These facts are widely know. Any skin doctor will be happy to confirm them. Yet the lure of profits is too tempting for the public deception to stop.

Romney’s energy self-sufficiency fallacy

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Mitt Romney, the Republican candidate for US president, recently made headlines by proposing that under his policies the US could become independent of energy imports by 2020. To make this claim slightly less incredible (the US uses 20% of the world’s petroleum while holding only 3% of its proven reserves), he included Canada and Mexico in his plan, effectively widening the scope to all of North America. The essence of his plan, which was received favourably by conservative media, are policies to boost hydrocarbon output (oil and gas production). The aim of the policy is to create jobs in exploration while keeping energy costs low for consumers, boosting the economy.

Let us assume that government policy could actually significantly boost oil and gas production. What effect would that have on the US and world economy in the next decades?

There was a time when the US was largely self sufficient on petroleum. Output was growing rapidly until the 1940s. However, new discoveries could not keep up with the rate of depletion of old wells. Production in the contiguous 48 states peaked in the early 1970s. The US became increasingly dependent on imports for oil supplies.

Worldwide hydrocarbon reserves are limited. There will come a point when worldwide production will peak (some believe it has already been reached) and from then on, rising oil prices will ensure that consumers reduce their demand to match available declining production.

Let us assume that, thanks to Mr Romney’s policies, oil and gas production in North America will magically rise enough to cover the entire amount currently being imported from the Middle East, South America and elsewhere (an assumption that is extremely optimistic according to experts). The amount currently imported will then become available as extra supplies to China, India, Brazil, Europe, Japan and other countries, keeping energy costs low for them and allowing them to compete more effectively with US manufacturers over the next decade.

At some point those new oil wells, shale gas wells and tar sand pits will run dry too. What then? By then oil will be a far more scarce resource, with more cars, motorcycles and power stations in China, India, Brazil, Thailand, Malaysia, etc. burning it than today, as those economies will have been rapidly growing. At that point the US will have to revert to buying oil from Saudi Arabia again, whose reserves are estimated to be more long-lasting than North America’s. It will have no reserves left to replace those premium price imports then. Every dollar saved on import substitution in the next couple of years could cost US consumers 10 dollars then.

Imagine a world in which the price of oil were to double every decade. The oil in the ground in North America won’t go away unless it is pumped up and used. Why would you want to consume it while it’s worth only $70 a barrel instead of when it’s $140 or $280 a barrel? In a world of rising prices it pays to be a buyer early and a seller later.

Perversely, one of the beneficiaries of US policies on oil could be Iran. Economic sanctions linked to the country’s suspected nuclear weapons program have depressed Iranian oil sales. The more slowly Iranian oil reserves are depleted, the more Iran will benefit economically from these reserves when they are eventually used after oil prices have gone up.

Mt Fuji: You don’t have to be a fool to climb it twice

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I am back from my second climb of Mt Fuji. All the 26 members of our hiking group (from age 8 to about 70) made it to the top and back down again. We started from the Fujinomiya 5th stage and also returned via there. My first climb had been about 11 months ago.

On the first day we hiked from 2400 m to 3460 m in about 5 hours. Then around 3:20am the second day we set off from the 9th stage mountain hut, ascending another 300 m of altitude in darkness to reach the peak before sunrise.

After descending back down to the 9th stage we hiked over to Mt Hoei, a crater on the side of Mt Fuji created by the most recent eruption in the 18th century.

I had never seen the eruption site of Mt Hoei from close up and it looked most impressive. Much of the hiking was in what looked like fog but was the clouds that surrounded the mountain. We had lots of views on to a sea of clouds from the top.

A lot of people suffer from altitude sickness on Mt Fuji because there is about 35% less oxygen at the top than at sea level, which in combination with the exercise leads to rapid breathing that can turn the blood alkaline (CO2 depletion). Above 3400 m I too got a headache at times, but unlike my Japanese friends I never used canned oxygen during this hike.

The weather was ideal, but it was still only a cool 12 degrees C in the sunny afternoon at the mountain hut and below freezing at the top before sunrise, with strong wind (I saw frozen puddles). Imagine going from a hot humid summer day in Tokyo to a cold windy February night within just a couple of hours and you have a good idea of the contrasts of a Fuji climb. Winter clothes are definitely needed for a sunrise climb, the warmer the better. Good hiking boots are recommended at any time and don’t forget your camera!

Ultegra Di2 versus Alfine 11 Di2

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I just saw a post by Bike Friday head designer Rob English about Ultegra Di2 becoming available on their high end folding bikes. Di2 is Shimano’s electronic gear shift system. The first version appeared on their high end Dura Ace group set used by professional racers. The latest Ultegra Di2 is more affordable, but it’s still not cheap (about US$2,300 vs. $4,000 for the group set). A few months ago my son had the chance to take the Di2-equipped 700C bike of my friend Eric of the GS Astuto team for a spin and simply loved it. Gear changes were so quick and precise and the front derailleur adjusts as you switch through the cassette at the rear. No manual trimming is ever required to avoid chain rub. You never mess up any gear shifts, even under load. Once set up the system remains precisely tuned, with no maintenance required for months.

Some cyclists are skeptical about electronic shifting because it involves batteries. That’s somewhat understandable, since as users of mobile phones and digital cameras we have all experienced running out of charge, often when it’s most inconvenient. However, from what I hear one charge of the Di2 battery should last you about 1,000 km of cycling, far further than the average car fuel tank. A battery that lasts weeks and months should be good enough for most people. What’s more, even if you do run out of power you first get ample warning. For instance, the front derailleur stops working before you will run out of juice for the more important rear derailleur. The ideal setup of course would be electronic shifting combined with a dynamo hub. You would get all the benefits of an electronic system with the self-sufficiency of an all mechanical setup.

After Ultegra Di2, some people were hoping for Shimano to announce a 105 version of Di2 as the next step of digital shifting for the masses (105 is the next road group below Dura Ace and Ultegra), but instead Shimano chose to announce Alfine 11 Di2 (Shimano SG-S705), an electronic version of its 11 speed internal geared hub (IGH), the mechanical version of which had been launched in 2010.

Alfine 11 Di2 addresses the vast city and commuter market, but it should also be interesting for road, touring and mountain bikes. IGHs do without a vulnerable derailleur and require less maintenance. The Alfine 11 gear range (low to high) of 1:4.09 is wider than the 1:3.74 spread of a compact crank (50/34) with a 11-28 cassette. Unlike the mechanical version, Ultegra Di2 does not yet support triple cranks and bigger cassettes can only be done via non-standard hacks.

I recently rode some insanely steep hills west of Tokyo (18-20%), which I could not possibly have managed without the lowest gear of my triple cranks setup (50/39/30 and 11-28 with 20″ 451 wheels). Therefore I think I would be more interested in Alfine 11 Di2, even if Ultegra Di2 will be more appealing to road bike purists.

Of islands and panda bears

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Tokyo governor Ishihara Shintaro, a nationalist politician who is never shy when given half a chance to upset the Chinese government, recently suggested that a new born panda baby at Ueno zoo should be named “Sen Sen” or “Kaku Kaku” after the Senkaku islands controlled by Japan, but claimed by both mainland China and Taiwan. Panda bears are traditionally given names consisting of two identical Chinese characters.

Ishihara’s provokative suggestion predictably led to an angry response from the Chinese government, but that probably only enhanced his standing amongst Japanese nationalists. Nevertheless, I have to question how smart it is to name something after the disputed islands that does actually belong to China: The parents of the panda baby are not owned by the Japanese zoo but only leased from China. The baby too belongs to China and will have to be sent there once it is two years old. Naming something that will have to be handed over to China after islands that Japan intends to keep may not exactly be the smartest move 😉