“Muslim demographics” propaganda video exposed

Today a friend forwarded me an email with a link to a Youtube video on “Muslim demographics” that appears to be viral at the moment, with over 5 million views so far:

Islam will overwhelm Christendom unless Christians recognize the demographic realities, begin reproducing again, and share the gospel with Muslims.

It’s a cleverly made piece of propaganda that paints a picture of a Europe in which Muslims become the majority of the population by or before 2050. However it did not clearly reference its sources, which (if you notice them at all) appear too small to be readable. It’s not clear who produced this video either.

Why do I call it propaganda? Because whoever made it, they did play fast and loose with the truth – Goebbels would have been proud of them. I will give you just a few examples.

They claimed that the average fertility of Muslim women in France was 8.1 children per woman, which would be about 4 times the French average. The fact is that most Muslims in France originated from Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia or Turkey, countries whose average fertility rates are much lower than claimed for the Muslim immigrants.

Morocco 2.57
Algeria 1.82
Tunisia 1.73
Turkey 1.87

That doesn’t really make sense. It seems likely that fertility amongst immigrants would fall somewhere in between rates in their country of origin and of their new chosen home, but not some four times higher than either of them, as the makers of this propaganda video would have us believe.

Birth rates have been falling with rising living standards and education levels – not only in Europe, North America and Japan but also in Latin America, South Asia, East Asia, most of the Middle East and just about anywhere else. It’s a global trend: These days even the Islamic Republic of Iran, not exactly a bastion of Western liberalism, has a lower fertility rate than France. In fact sub-Saharan Africa is the only region worldwide that has bucked the trend, where fertility rates have remained consistently high. A large percentage of future Christian and Muslim worldwide population growth will come from that continent.

Another example is false claim in the video that Muslims make up 25% of the population of Belgium, when in fact they only reach that proportion in the city of Brussels, while they constitute a mere 4.0% of the population of Wallonia and 3.9% of the population of Flanders, the two major regions of the country. The national average is 6% – only one quarter of what the video claims. The video authors are off in a similar way in a similar claim about the Netherlands.

These and numerous other mistakes and inconsistencies are exposed and thoroughly refuted in an excellent post on the Tiny Frog blog. If anyone sends you a link to the “Muslim demographics” video, send them back a link to the facts!

Demographics and Politics

With falling birth rates in many developed countries and rising immigration that partly compensates for this, many people are afraid of their countries gradually losing their cultural identity. This fear is largely misplaced. When Polish workers came to the Ruhr area of Prussia in large numbers to work in coal mines in the 19th century, there were the same fears, but now their descendants are as German as anyone else and only the numerous Polish surnames in the phone books or local football (soccer) teams remind of the immigration. Likewise, Catholic immigrants from Ireland, Italy and Mexico faced a lot of hostility in the US around the turn of the 19th/20th century, but they integrated like Protestant immigrants before them and their descendants speak English like other Americans. With immigration patterns such as in Europe and the US, immigrant populations will largely assimilate within two or three generations, even if they may retain some elements of their parents’ and grandparents’ culture.

Unfortunately most people who have watched this propaganda video will not see the real facts any time soon. There is a good chance this video will have had an effect on them, sowing seeds of fear and mistrust that others will seek to exploit for political gains. Nazi chief propagandist Joseph Goebbels’ would have approved: “That propaganda is good which leads to success, and that is bad which fails to achieve the desired result,” he wrote. “It is not propaganda’s task to be intelligent, its task is to lead to success.” (see Joachim Fest, The Face of the Third Reich).

Whoever made this video does not care about the real numbers or facts, or they would not consistently get their facts wrong by such wide margins. What they are trying to do is to stoke fear. As one person wrote who forwarded the link to my friend: “WATCH THIS AND BE AFRAID – VERY AFRAID.” People who are afraid are easier to manipulate: They will want to give power to whoever is promising to protect them from the perceived danger. In 1933 Hitler assumed total power in Germany after scaring the country of a supposedly imminent communist coup (by having his troopers secretly set fire to the Reichstag). Look what George W. Bush, Dick Cheney and Co. managed to get away with when Americans got really frightened after 9/11! Fear is a powerful weapon at the hands of those unscrupulous enough to exploit it.

25 thoughts on ““Muslim demographics” propaganda video exposed

  1. “If anyone sends you a link to the “Muslim demographics” video, send them back a link to the facts!”

    I do.Good advice.

  2. I think this article is good, but if you’re going to criticise others for not including sources, you really should make sure to include some yourself. 🙂

  3. Bob,

    the article by Tiny Frog that I linked to provides much more details and I recommend reading it.

  4. So, I understand the need for proper statistics and references need to be given for the research but, at the heart of the message it seems like the creator of this video is trying to get the public to look at trends in the world and realize things are indeed shifting. The world is a lot different now as far as how much cultures have integrated across the whole world. The Iranian diaspora is quite amazing how they’ve made home in North America and Europe and beyond. I did a project on it in 2007 i was shocked. Anyways I guess each individual needs to step back and decide for themselves if the world is changing and Islam is rising in popularity in originally ‘Christian nations.’ And if it is, what is your response? Is the solution to have more christian kids? Is it to react with fear and resistance? Or is this something that is unchangeable and we will need to learn how to live along side one another? If Islam has an agenda to wipe out the west, I think it would be a good idea for Christians to actually talk to God one on one and ask Him how he sees Muslims as people and ask Him how He wants us to respond to the increase of Muslims in Western nations. I think Jesus would treat them with respect and point them to what God is truly like and that God Himself lay down His own life for us all so that we would not have to receive the penalty for our sin. God doesn’t love Christians or Muslims, but God loves people. Doesn’t matter what religion your nation stands for or what it says in your passport. God looks at the heart dude.
    Hopefully more videos with this kind of message will get viraled around instead of ones that seem to cause more tension. This divide has gone on long enough between Muslim and Christian. If fear tactics and fighting is all people have to try and get their own way, be a Christian or a Muslim, maybe they should take a step back and ask if there is another way.

    LUKE chapter 6:27-36
    “But I tell you who hear me: Love your enemies, do good to those who hate you, bless those who curse you, pray for those who mistreat you. If someone strikes you on one cheek, turn to him the other also. If someone takes your cloak, do not stop him from taking your tunic. Give to everyone who asks you, and if anyone takes what belongs to you, do not demand it back. Do to others as you would have them do to you.
    “If you love those who love you, what credit is that to you? Even ‘sinners’ love those who love them. And if you do good to those who are good to you, what credit is that to you? Even ‘sinners’ do that. And if you lend to those from whom you expect repayment, what credit is that to you? Even ‘sinners’ lend to ‘sinners,’ expecting to be repaid in full. But love your enemies, do good to them, and lend to them without expecting to get anything back. Then your reward will be great, and you will be sons of the Most High, because he is kind to the ungrateful and wicked. Be merciful, just as your Father is merciful.”

    Not many people live like this but I believe its the standard that we would be wise to strive for.

  5. Excellent point, Ronnie. Whether it’s propaganda or not, the fact is that the Muslim population truly is growing. And it’s growing fast. I would ask you this: If a Muslim approached you and asked you why the Bible is true or how you actually know that Jesus rose from the dead and is the God you claim Him to be….how would you answer them? Would you say that it is because you believe it? Or because you have faith? Or because it’s the truth? For each of those answers, Muslims can say the same about the Quran. My point is this: We as followers of Jesus Christ NEED to know how to intellectually defend our faith in light of this growing population of Muslims (or any other religion for that matter). Can you? Again, whether this video is propaganda or not isn’t the issue. If it raises concern about the growing nation of Islam…good. It shouldn’t scare you, it should equip you and inspire you to seek God’s face for the boldness and desire to reach these people that God loves as much as He loves you and I. I say let’s KNOW what we believe and be able to intellectually articulate to them in love. If we don’t, I guarantee that they will try to “evangelize” you to Islam. And I also promise that the WILL be equipped to disarm your arguments if you are not ready. Let’s get studying.

  6. Truth matters. People who lie, as the makers of this video did, are not only deceiving others. When someone starts to believe that telling lies is OK, do you think they will still be truthful to themselves? No, they will pick the “facts” that they want to believe in just as casually as they lie to others. Is “lying for Jesus” acceptable? I don’t believe it is. Get into the habit and you gradually lose touch with reality. Lies and deception corrode the very basis of society, which can not function without shared trust.

    The major claim of the video, that major European countries are headed for Muslim majorities in the foreseeable future, is not backed by facts. Birth rates amongst immigrants from predominantly Muslim countries have been falling for decades, as have birth rates in those countries themselves. It is a fact that the average fertility rate of women in the Islamic Republic of Iran is now lower than in France. Fertility rates are falling dramatically in most Muslim countries, with the exception of only one region: sub-Saharan Africa, where birth rates have remained high both in Muslim and Christian populations. Much of the future growth in numbers for those two religions will come from that continent.

    Birth rates fall as education levels and living standards rise. This development started earlier in some countries and later in others, but it’s not fundamentally tied to any religion or ideology.

    Historically, the record of coexistence between the two religions has been mixed. While Muslims were “ethnically cleansed” from Portugal and Spain after the ‘reconquista’, Greece, Serbia and Hungary remained predominantly Christian even under Turkish rule, as did large parts of the Iberian peninsula under seven centuries of Moorish rule even though Christians were often discriminated against. Significant Christian populations remain up to this day in Lebanon, Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Palestine and Iraq.

    I am puzzled about talk about converting Muslims to Christianity or vice versa. Isn’t the real change happening in an altogether different direction? In absolute numbers, the fastest growing group in Europe have not been Muslims but people who attend neither churches nor mosques, people not affiliated with any organized religion. Essentially, Europe has become more secular, not more Islamic. Virtually empty churches and fewer and fewer priests are a stronger symptom of traditional churches in crisis than any construction of new mosques.

    I fully expect that this secular trend will gradually extend to immigrants from Muslim countries. Their values are becoming more Western with every generation that grows up in the new country, though social problems may still make radical Islam attractive as an alternative identity to some people who feel left out of economic opportunities.

  7. “If Islam has an agenda to wipe out the west, I think it would be a good idea for Christians to actually talk to God one on one and ask Him how he sees Muslims as people and ask Him how He wants us to respond to the increase of Muslims in Western nations.”

    At this point it is worthwhile to recall that both Jesus (Matt 24:14, Luke 21:24 and Matt 24:15) promised the coming of One, like unto the Son of Man, but Muhammad promised the coming of al-Qaim and al-Mahdi, both of Whom would lead true believers in the transformation of all humankind.

    After 165 years, since the Coming of the al-Qaim, (One like unto the Son of Man) in the Person of The Bab, the Gate through Whom came Baha’u’llah, the Promised One of ALL ages and faiths, the Muslim clergy are finding it ever more difficult to pretend that we’re living in Muhammad’s day, or Jesus’ day when faced with the lasers, cell-phones and internet of THIS Day, born May 23, 1844 with the birth of the electronic age’s first manifestation, the telegraph!

    And that telegraph sends the news to all the world, the good news of the Coming of the Twin Holy Lights promised in Revelations and The Koran, Whose teachings do NOT require converting to Jew, Christian or Muslim, but openly state the realities which are dynamically shaping our world today: the Oneness of God, the Oneness of the Faith of God, the Oneness of Humankind, the Equality of Men & Women, the need for Independent Investigation of Reality and the need for both Science and Religion.

    When Muslims begin to realize that al-Qaim and al-Mahdi HAVE COME, in only a matter of weeks nearly ALL the Islamic world will have begun its journey toward Baha’u’llah… the remaining Muslims will be a tiny minority, essentially powerless.

  8. Muslims are indeed a growing demographic in Europe but this video is simple propaganda. Even the 52 million population of Muslims is without any references. I don’t think Muslims are more than 20 million in Europe.


  9. It seems like almost anyone quoting a figure of 52-54 million Muslims in Europe, they used figures published by the Zentral Institut-Islam-Archiv (Central Institute Islam Archive) in Soest, Germany. I have not seen an exact breakdown how that source (which is somewhat dubious) got its figures, but it includes 25 million Muslims in Russia alone as well as 5.9 million in the European part of Turkey (west of the Bosporus).

    The Union of Turkish-Islamic Cultural Associations in Europe (www.atib.org) quotes a figure of 30,2 million or – excluding countries that were part of the former Soviet Union – 15-20 million.

  10. i think people are very ignorant about the teachings of Islam, even muslims themselves. Islam is not hostile as it is portrayed by many around the world and it definitely is not out to kill. If killing nonmuslims was the teaching (which it’s not), why would Islam be interested in converts?

    Islam is not just a religion, or mere teachings of the prophet Mohammed (pbuh), it is a way of life. It is unfortunate that it’s fallen into the wrong hands and misunderstood by those who fall victims to the scaremongering. pick up a book and read.

    Islam literally means peace and according to the Quran, taking one innocent life is equal to murdering the entire global population.

    i would just encourage everyone to read about Islam and not be afraid. we usually are afraid of the unknown but if you equip yourself with knowledge, you can conquer every fear.

  11. I do agree that they have Michael-Moored the numbers, but so do you.. Thus, if i’m to find the middle ground it’s still desturbing news

  12. @Kari Østerø:

    Excuse me, but what you you mean by “but so do you.. “?

    The people who made this video have no concern for verifiable facts. They make the “facts” fit their political agenda. I have tried to list the sources wherever I referenced numbers.

  13. Thanks so much for posting this very helpful critique and criticism !! Just heard about this video last night from people, who were clearly taken in by the video’s so called “statistics”, and still worse their interpretation.

  14. England has Sharia Law. weather the film is propiganda or not the problem is real. The answer is missions, but will you go and tell europe the gospel.

  15. You are conveniently leaving out

    1) polygamy

    2) the mean doctrine of al-hijrah to further the ends of dawa

    Most of the people commented on here obviously know nothing about Islam. You can be born a Muslim and still not know a damn thing about what is written in the Quran and Hadith.
    Those born into Islam have no choice. They can’t choose to be something else due to the prohibitive statements in doctrine.

  16. I have Four brief points.

    First, religion should no longer play any role in human society as it the source of all evil ever since history started. Read Richard Dawkins and Christopher Hitchens books and see their videos to become enlightened. It is time for humanity to wake up and go beyond the fair tales of the Bible and the Quran.

    Second, I am appalled by the shear ignorance of Christians who submitted comments about Islam. Muslims and their Quran believe in Jesus and the Quran describes him as the Messiah, lists his miracles, and refers to his mother Mary as the greatest woman who ever lived. Islam and Judaism are so identical they are almost indistinguishable, with the Quran talking about Abraham, Noah, Moses, David, Solomon, Jospeh, Jonah, and all other biblical prophets in the most eloquent and respectful prose. So the three religions are one and the same and only misinformed, ignorant, racist idiots would think otherwise.

    Thirdly, Muslims as a whole are peaceful and wonderful people and just because a few misguided radicals commit crimes in the name of Islam one cannot generalize this to all Muslims, so this Islamophobia is totally misplaced and unnecessary.

    Fourth, I wish all Jews, Christians, and Muslim would grow up and leave those fairy tales behind, uniting together as humans and citizens of the world to make our world more prosperous and peaceful and wonderful to live in. We have had enough bloodshed and hatred and backwardness. Let us all grow together as human societies and use science and knowledge and reason and rationality and technology to guide our lives instead of the violence and racism and hatred of the Bible and the Quran.

  17. @WiseAthiest:-)…awesomely said…..totally agree that humans of all religions should throw in the towel and grow up as all the teachings are basically the same with very minor differences and humans totallay misconstrue everything they read or hear about……if a way of life aint good enough for you step out and adopt another which suits your individual taste bud,just stop the finger pointing like grade one kids…..God has appointed a way of life for each human,i see no point of why we show aggression when its not required.Give life a chance to make its own decision as there comes a point and time in life when we are no more,so what was our purpose on earth if we behave,act savagely……fruitless!

  18. -WiseAtheist:

    Are you an Atheist, or just another fool that thinks he figured something out, making him wiser than the pitiful world population of mindless believers? Those billions of dummies that read a book or two and believe what they read, and then live by it. That adjust their lifestyle based on what they read, thus making it a religion.

    But wait, isn’t your conversion to the beliefs in the writings of men such as Dawkins and Hitchens similar. Did you change your life and beliefs because of your encounters with some books written by men.

    Yes, indeed, you are just like a christian, jew, or muslim. The only difference is that very few really agree with you, and you don’t have a real answer for anything. Just that you don’t agree with 99% of the world population, and that somehow makes you feel like you are finally special and more enlightened.

    Truth is, that you are lonely and scared, and the “argument” is all that you really have. If you stop talking to people about it, you feel hollow and unsettled. There is a reason that there are so few lifelong devotes in your religion called atheism. Open your mind and soul, and find some inner truth. When you do, you will not need to hide behind the arguments of the unknown. Let the pride and anger go and you may find peace.


  19. WiseAtheist is quite correct in his observations (except he misspelled “sheer”) and the retort which followed is presumptuous, illogical and just plain stupid.

    As for the disgusting video at the centre of this blog, the venom which it spews is truly worrying. It ends with a “call to action!” without specifying what that might be. Are we supposed to all start having babies? Or murdering Muslims? Or both?

    To the purported “threat”, the growth of Islam in the western world, I say, “so what?”. The Christian legacy of this part of the world isn’t much to be proud of.

    Bravo, Joe Wein, for exposing this piece of shit for what it is.

  20. I completely agree with Joe Wein, altough I might missed the references to data presented in statistics by J. W.. I say this is basically a very very enriching website and the discussion below the J. W.´s commentary is very important. Everyone´s opinion is important, but the ability to tolerate and be wide open to new facts and theories is quite important, too. Guess there´s one very vital resolution for everyone: “find the relevant data, build-up your own opinion based on those and then watch the world (trying to understand the consequences) while living a happy life…”

  21. I am happy that video is faulty because if it were true and Islam was going to overwhelm the West that would be bad, it would be very very BAD. Do you all agree?

  22. Suggest readers or views of the YouTube video
    look up TFR Replacement rates – US fertility rate fell to 1.8 between 1975-1979 – projection is
    2.02 between 2045-2050. France is hovering around 1.89 for 2005-2010. Immigrants will outnumber white Americans and Europeans.
    US will be Asian #1, Mexico #2.

  23. yep…..
    a strange propaganda that can b dangerous for the
    global village . A huge gap between moslems and rest of the world is already exist. 1.6 billion can not b separated from the world. film is trying to create more gap between these two worlds. which is not good for future of this world…

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